December 14, 2008: Winter storm approaching area…
December 14, 2008:
FORECAST CHANGES:
1: QUICKER CHANGE TO ICE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
2. More confidence in my forecast totals for system 1 and 2.
3. Added new advisories from the Paducah, NWS Office.
Heaviest ice will likely fall on Monday night into Tuesday. Lighter amounts on Monday morning into Monday afternoon.
IF the majority of the precipitation falls as freezing rain then power outages and tree damage will be possible on Monday night into Tuesday. There is the risk for significant ice across our region. If the precipitation falls as sleet and snow then this will help limit power line damage.
Weather Update:
Buckle up because we are about to go on a wild weather ride. Temperatures in the 50s today will plummet into the teens and 20s by tomorrow, Rain will turn to ice by Monday morning and we may be talking about a severe thunderstorm threat later this week.
Needless to say all of those who need to monitor weather changes for their different agencies should be prepared for significant weather changes over the coming days.
Let’s take this one threat at a time. Each one, in itself, could produce significant problems across our region.
THREAT:
High Winds today into this evening (Sunday)
Flash Freeze on Monday morning
Winter storm number1 is forecast to hit the region on Monday into Monday night – Ice Storm – Sleet/Freezing rain
Winter storm number 2 is forecast to hit the region on Tuesday into Wednesday.
THREAT TIME FRAME FOR WINTER WEATHER:
Monday-Wednesday night – December 15-17th.
PRIMARY THREAT AREA:
MO/IL/IN/KY
SECONDARY THREAT AREA
TN
WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
1. Winter storm watches have now been issued for all of the KPAH (Paducah, KY Forecast Area). See official NWS text below.
2. A WIND ADVISORY has been issued for the region through 6 AM Monday morning.
APPROXIMATE EXPECTED TIME ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC FRONT:
Cape Girardeau, MO: 3 AM
Cairo, IL: 3 AM
Metropolis IL: 6 AM
Paducah, KY: 6 AM
Mayfield, KY: 6-7 AM
Evansville, IN: 7-8 AM
Hopkinsville, KY: 8-10 AM
Owensboro, KY: 8-10 AM
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A FLASH FREEZE is possible with this cold front. Temperatures will fall 20-30 degrees within a very short amount of time, once the front passes any given location. I have moved the arrival time of the front up by 6-12 hours. This means Monday morning instead of Monday afternoon. See the attached temperature map for just how quickly the temperatures will fall. The map attached is the Monday morning forecast.
Rain will develop today and tonight. Rainfall totals ahead of the cold front will likely range from 0.25"-0.50". A few thunderstorms are possible. The rain will change to freezing rain and sleet during the morning hours on Monday. Light ice accumulations are expected on Monday morning and into the afternoon. Right now I am thinking 0.10-0.30" of sleet/freezing rain/snow from the first system.
ANY freezing rain or drizzle could cause travel problems. I am not certain how quickly the road temperatures will cool down on Monday morning. It is likely the the worst travel weather will be on Monday night into Tuesday as the second winter storm develops over our region.
Speaking of the second winter storm…
A second event is now becoming more and more likely. This event will develop over our counties on Monday night and continue into Tuesday night. It appears, at this time, that most of this precipitation will fall as freezing rain and sleet. There could be significant icing problems across our counties on Monday night and Tuesday.
In addition to the winter storm threats – strong winds are forecast for today across all of our counties. Winds ahead of the storm system will gust between 30-40 mph. There will likely be some branches knocked down from these winds. This is especially true since there is still a lot of tree damage left over from Hurricane Ike.
I will update this forecast late this evening.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest information on this developing winter storm.
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Beau Dodson
All opinions and forecasts are my own. This email is for planning purposes only.