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Beau's Journey » Blog Archive » April 9, 2009: Rain and storms moving in – house – trenching
Thursday, April 9th, 2009

April 9, 2009: Rain and storms moving in – house – trenching

  Looks like rain will move in later today and that will be followed by strong to severe thunderstorms late tonight.  I think the biggest risk will be from 12 AM through 8 AM tomorrow morning.  We are close to the warm front so can’t rule out tornadoes.  Heavy rain, as well.

  Went to the farm this morning.  They measured for cabinets.  Rodney built me a box for my rain gauge – concrete base.  Looks like they are getting the house wrapped. 

 


This is where the big rain gauge will be placed.  Awaiting concrete.

 


Rodney cutting wood

 


The house is almost wrapped.  Getting there.

 

My forecast

Date:  2:30 PM – April 9, 2009:  Mesoscale Discussion

Call to action: Spotters may be needed later tonight and Friday morning.  As always, listen to NOAA Weather Radio or other local media for updated forecasts.

Time frame:  Tonight from 9 PM through 5 AM

Storm Mode/Type: Line of strong/severe thunderstorms embedded in an area of rain.
Storm Prediction Center Forecast Threat Level: 
Slight (Remember there are three levels – slight/moderate/high).

Storm Movement: East/Northeast at 30+ mph

This forecast was issued by – Beau Dodson
Meteorological Specialist for the Paducah/McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

This outlook is issued for portions of southeast Missouri, South Illinois, southwest Indiana, State of Kentucky, West Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas.
Effective from .

Discussion:  A large area of rain was moving into southeast Missouri, South Illinois, East Arkansas, West Kentucky, West Tennessee.  A warm front was located over North Arkansas.  A deep low pressure area (991 mb) was moving across North Oklahoma.  Visible satellite indicates that the sun has broken out ahead of a line of developing thunderstorms across East Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. 

Dew points have risen into the 50s across Arkansas and West Tennessee.  Remember the higher the dew points the more likely we will experience strong to severe thunderstorms.  Normally upper 50s and lower 60s are considered "sufficient" dew points for severe weather.  Dew points readings are already in the 60s across southeast Arkansas.

A tornado watch has been issued for portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas.  This is the area of concern that will approach our region later tonight.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across ALL of our counties after 9 PM tonight.  The threat will likely continue through 5 AM.  Although, this doesn’t look like a big outbreak there could be problems since it will be dark when the strongest thunderstorms hit the region.  I always encourage people to have NOAA Weather Radios – with an alarm – to alert them of overnight severe weather warnings.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a slight risk (remember there are three levels of risk – slight/moderate/high) for severe thunderstorms through tonight and into early tomorrow morning.

I now believe that the greatest risk for severe thunderstorms for Friday will remain just a tad east of our counties, as mentioned in the previous discussion.  For the second round, tomorrow, we are right on the line.  I think most of our counties will be clear of "severe" weather, though, after round one later tonight.  People further east in Central Kentucky and Tennessee may experience severe weather late tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Large hail, strong winds, lightning, heavy rain (rainfall totals in excess of 1" are possible tonight/tomorrow morning), and isolated tornadoes are possible overnight tonight.

More heavy rain is possible Sunday night and Monday.  This will raise river flooding concerns.

Paducah’s hazardous weather outlook can be read at the bottom of the email.

Some useful links:

Storm Prediction Center
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

NWS Paducah (radar/warnings)
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/

NWS Jackson, KY (radar/warnings)
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/

NWS Louisville (radar/warnings)
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/

NWS Memphis (radar/warnings)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/

NWS St Louis (radar/warnings)
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/

Large Radar
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php

Beau Dodson
Meteorological Specialist for the Paducah/McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

NWS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
ISSUED BY THE PADUCAH, KY NWS OFFICE
http://kamala.cod.edu/ky/latest.flus43.KPAH.html

 

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