April 12, 2009: Severe weather possible on Monday
Date: April 11, 2009
Couple of items –
We have yet to have a "major" outbreak. All of the risks lately have been slight. This shows you what the potential for each "risk" level is from the Storm Prediction Center (there are three – slight/moderate/high). Don’t be fooled by the terminology of "slight" risk (I don’t care for their threat levels anyway – it is confusing and can be misleading).
Also – I have discovered that it is not productive for me to send out watch alerts and warnings – my time needs to be focused on radar coverage for emergency management. So, if you want to receive watches and warnings – please go here (it is a free service and I use it, as well)
WPSD TV 6 Email Weather Alerts: http://www.wpsdlocal6.com/login.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2falertregistration%2fdefault.aspx
Also, I recommend everyone have a NOAA Weather Radio – it is the quickest way to receive warnings.
I will continue to send out daily forecasts when weather events are expected. I will also update the outlooks as necessary. Since Jan/Feb the email updates have been averaging a lead-time of 5-7 days on each event. But, like this morning – the weather can be unpredictable at times. Storm systems can slow down and surprise us with more severe weather or less severe weather than expected.
Also, I always encourage everyone to remember that when a severe weather event occurs not every county will receive severe weather. Remember, that this email is going out to numerous counties. Listen for watches and specific county warnings from NOAA Weather Radio or local media.
Now for the forecast…
Call to action: Spotter activation might be necessary on Monday. As always, listen to NOAA Weather Radio or other local media for updated forecasts.
This forecast was issued by – Beau Dodson
Meteorological Specialist for the Paducah/McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
This outlook is issued for portions of southeast Missouri, South Illinois, southwest Indiana, State of Kentucky, West Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas.
Effective from .
Weather Event/Threats: Heavy rain and possibly strong/severe weather
Heavy Rain – Sunday night into Monday
Strong/Severe Thunderstorms – possible on Monday
Storm Mode/Type: Possible bow echoes and supercells in or near the region
Storm Prediction Center Forecast Threat Level: Slight (Remember there are three levels – slight/moderate/high).
Storm Movement: East/Northeast 30+ mph
Area impacted: Entire region
Discussion: Yet another in a series of strong storm systems will approach the region on Sunday night and Monday. It is a bit early to know for sure just how high the risk for severe weather will be. At this time the models are showing a window of opportunity for severe weather from noon Monday through 9 PM. This is still a couple of days away and will need to be monitored.
Heavy rain is going to be a problem. Recent moderate to heavy rain events have caused rivers to rise. This is going to continue. Additional rainfall could cause flash flooding or general flooding in some of our counties. We will need to monitor this situation, as well. Those interested in river levels and flood potential should visit the Paducah, NWS web-site for updated flood information.
Rain will move into our region on Sunday night and continue into Monday morning. We should have some sort of break on Monday morning – late. More rain and thunderstorms are then forecast to develop over the region as the warm front moves northward. If the storm system tracks further south and east then the severe weather threat level will be lower. Again, updated forecasts will fine tune the threat.
Looking ahead – more showers and thunderstorms are possible later this week. I know it is beginning to sound like a broken record. Spring is here.
Beau Dodson
Meteorological Specialist for the Paducah/McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Links of interest:
Storm Prediction Center
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
NWS Paducah (radar/warnings)
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
NWS Jackson, KY (radar/warnings)
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/
NWS Louisville (radar/warnings)
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/
NWS Memphis (radar/warnings)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/
NWS St Louis (radar/warnings)
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/
Large Radar
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php
NWS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
ISSUED BY THE PADUCAH, KY NWS OFFICE
http://kamala.cod.edu/ky/latest.flus43.KPAH.html