Most ice I have ever witnessed here. Trees and tree limbs are falling all over the county. Large branches are hitting our house. We can hear crashes every minute now - branches breaking and falling over the neighborhood.
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We lost one window. Tree branch. Power is going on and off. Comcast internet is gone. We have aircard only. Freezing rain continues. We can hearing popping noises everywhere. We can hear loud humming and transformer explosions. It is getting bad.
The precip should end on Wednesday afternoon - snow by then. Freezing rain and ice from now and through the night tonight (Tuesday night). This is going to get nasty unless we warm up a degree or two).
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Ice storm continues. I am expecting the ice accumulation to double in the next 18 hours. Our temperature is falling. We expect major major damage in our county and others. Looking bad for this neighborhood. We are already getting tree limbs falling and transformers blowing. So far we have power. It has gone on and off.
We have recorded 1.55" melted precip and around 1/2" of ice.
Bad.
Some pics I just took
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We are starting to get limbs breaking here in Lone Oak. We can hear them outside. Power outages across the region. Freezing rain continues. We have one tree leaning over the house. Don’t see this ending well for us. Freezing rain is forecast to continue into tonight. We have at least another 12-18 hours to go.
This photo is from 1 AM
4 AM
5 AM
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A major ice storm is going to hit the region. it appears that some counties will have major damage to trees and power lines. I believe Paducah will see 1/2" of freezing rain - 1-3 inches of sleet and 1-3 inches of snow. Looks like a bad one. Some counties could see more than 1" of freezing rain. Hoping that the temperature will rise just enough to change everything to plain rain along the KY/TN border. If not then they will see major damage.
Time will tell.
I didn’t make it up to the farm today. Had to work on weather stuff. Tony went up there and met with the plumber and Kelly. Looks like they are pouring the concrete foundation for the garage and porches.
Tony took a few photos…
Pouring foundation support for the porches.
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Well, it had to happen eventually. It looks like Old Man Winter is going to hit our region hard. A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will move into our counties on Monday night and Tuesday. Precipitation may continue into Wednesday.
As far as amounts. Very tough call. I am expecting around 1/2" of freezing rain across portions of West KY. On top of that will be 1-3" of sleet and perhaps 1-3 inches of snow. Precipitation type is hard to forecast. Hopefully tomorrow things will be a bit more clear.
A winter storm watch has been issued for our entire region (much of the Ohio Valley).
I got my generator ready - 10 gallons of gas - a bit of extra food and other provisions. I believe we are ready for whatever happens.
Worst case scenario is a major ice storm. Some areas could be without power for days or weeks. Hoping for the best.
Here is my email forecast that I sent out yesterday…pretty much sums it up
Ice storm and winter storm warnings cover all of our counties. Monday Morning - 8 AM Update
Next update will be this afternoon
Please read carefully as there will be major forecast challenges from one county to the next. Impacts will NOT be the same in each county of our area. Please keep this in mind as far as storm expectations.
Threat
Major to catastrophic ice storm (for some of our counties) - snow - Tonight through Wednesday
Area:
Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee
ANYONE WITH SPOTTER REPORTS PLEASE EMAIL ME THE INFORMATION AND I WILL PASS IT ON (OR FOR THOSE WHO ARE IN CONTACT WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE SEND IN YOUR REPORTS)
There has been very little change in guidance over the last few days. Everything appears on tap for a major winter storm to impact all of our region.
The biggest question that I have is precipitation type. A few miles will make all the difference between amounts.
At this time it appears the heaviest band of precipitation will be from the Missouri Bootheel through Graves County, Kentucky and then northeastward. Areas to the north and south of that line will receive less but still heavy totals.
At this time - best forecast that I have is that areas along and north of the Ohio River will receive a bit more snow than ice. Those areas will also see sleet and freezing rain. Ballard and McCracken County southward will see more sleet and freezing rain than snow. Snow will still fall in these counties as well.
The first round of precipitation should move into our counties after 7 PM tonight. Precipitation could be heavy at times. Thunderstorms are possible. Rapid accumulations of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will occur. This first round of precipitation will likely produce 0.25-0.50" of freezing rain, 1-3 inches of sleet, 2-4" of snow (depending on what county you are in). A real mixed bag of precipitation.
Damaging accumulations of freezing rain will be most likely across the Missouri Bootheel, Kentucky, and portions of Western Tennessee.
Round two of precipitation will move into our region on Tuesday afternoon and night. This precipitation could also be moderate to heavy at times. I am hoping that colder air will filter into the region and change much of this precipitation to snow instead of freezing rain. If this precipitation does remain as freezing rain then this will cause additional damage to trees and power lines.
Total freezing rain accumulations could exceed 1" across some of our counties - especially our southern counties. This will cause major to catastrophic damage to trees and power lines. Extended power outages from days to weeks will be possible across some counties.
At this time I believe that Paducah will see a mixed bag of precipitation. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Accumulations of ice in Paducah will likely be 0.25"-0.50". Sleet and snow accumulations could exceed 3 inches. Ice accumulations of 1/2" will likely bring down some tree limbs and power lines. We will have to monitor just how much of the precipitation falls as sleet vs freezing rain. It will make all the difference as far as damage impact.
Any slight shift in track of this storm will cause higher or lower accumulations. Updated forecasts will be issued through tonight.
This is a very dangerous winter storm. This will be a high impact event. I expect thousands of people to be without power across PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.
Not everyone will see damage to trees and power lines. Current guidance suggests there will be a sharp change in precipitation amounts from one county to the next. It is possible that Mayfield could see freezing rain accumulations of over 1" while Metropolis, Illinois could see less than 1/2" (just an example).
Everyone should make preparations for the possibility of power outages in our region. I am sure this will be the top news story for some time to come. This is a high impact event.
I will update the forecast this afternoon and again tonight (or as information changes).
Beau Dodson
Meteorological Specialist for the Paducah/McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Today was cold. Very cold! Temperatures fell into the lower 20s overnight. It was windy up on the hill. It is always windy up there. It also always feels colder up there. I guess that is because it is windy!
My dad finished fixing the water problems in the old house. We now have a shower and running water in the kitchen. Good - good!
They poured the foundation walls today. So that is good news. They also poured the concrete for the emergency management radio antenna tower. It was a bit deeper and bigger than we needed. I don’t think the tower will be going anywhere…that is for sure.
A major winter storm is going to hit the region on Monday night and Tuesday. I am very concerned about an ice storm. Not sure just yet how much sleet vs freezing rain falls. If this storm is mostly freezing rain then we will be in big trouble - lot of tree and power line damage.
Here is my email from this morning:
UPDATED: Saturday, January 24, 2009
If anyone being forwarded this email would like to be on the primary email list then please email me at beaudodson@usawx.com (I will then add you). If you are getting forwarded emails then it is possible that you will miss updates because the person forwarding the emails may not also be available (especially on weekends or at night).
Threat:
Wintry precipitation - medium confidence
Time Period:
Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday into Thursday
Note: This is a particularly difficult forecast. Computer models are offering very little in the way of assistance as to how this storm develops. Run to run inconsistencies are making the confidence in this forecast lower than usual. This is simply my best thought on how this unfolds. It could change over the next 48 hours. I will be more confident in how the storm unfolds as we draw closer in time to the on-set of the event. The best idea is just to prepare for a possible winter weather event late Monday night into Tuesday.
A very complex weather pattern is setting up across the five state region. Computer models are coming a little closer together this morning in painting a significant winter storm across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Latest guidance indicates that precipitation will start to break out on Monday night across our area - possibly as late as Tuesday morning. The precipitation will become heavier during the early morning hours of Tuesday. There is some debate as to just what time the precipitation begins. At this time (and this is an early thought) I believe it will be after 10 PM in Paducah, Kentucky. It will spread eastward from there throughout the night.
There is one model that breaks the precipitation out on Tuesday morning instead of Monday night. Regardless, it appears that a wintry mix will occur across the whole region early next week (at least at the beginning of the storm).
Major differences in precipitation totals are indicated on the models. The GFS (one model of choice) and the EC (another model of choice) shows heavy totals (greater than 1") across Kentucky.
There are also differences in the track of the storm system. This is going to have major impacts on just how much precipitation falls across our region. Unfortunately, there is very little model agreement. So, I am left to figure out how this forecast will pan out.
If the majority of precipitation falls as freezing rain on Monday night and Tuesday then this would be a significant ice storm.
At this time I am leaning towards a freezing rain and sleet solution for Southern Missouri into Kentucky. Freezing rain changing to rain across Tennessee. Snow across portions of Southeast Missouri and northern portions of Southern Illinois. Freezing rain and sleet across Southern Illinois and Southern Indiana. Freezing rain and sleet may change to rain across portions of Kentucky on Tuesday. This would certainly help lower ice accumulations.
This is a complex and potentially significant winter storm. We are still three days away from the event and much can change during that time. I think everyone is aware that winter storms are notoriously difficult to forecast for this region. A slight change in the rain/ice/snow line will cause major changes in this forecast. The freezing line will be within a few counties of West Kentucky - either north or south - on Tuesday. Again, this could cause ice to change to rain. If this occurs, obviously, this is going lower ice accumulations. Stay tuned.
I am now fairly confident that the winter storm will impact our counties. I am not as confident, yet, on just how much precipitation forms or for how long it remains below freezing. These are details that will be worked out in the coming days. At this time I am expecting sleet and freezing rain accumulations of greater than 0.25" over Southern Illinois and West Kentucky. I am not willing to go higher than that at this point due to inconsistencies in available data.
I am attaching a forecast precipitation total map put out by the National Weather Service. You can see that totals are significant across portions of the region. Now, some of this is because of a second storm that should develop on Wednesday. At this time, I believe that precipitation will fall in the form of rain. This is subject to change. However, you can get a better idea of just how much precipitation could fall in the coming days by looking at the attached map.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and local media for the latest information on this developing winter storm.
I will update this forecast either later tonight (Saturday night) or Sunday morning. I am expecting the NWS to issue some sort of winter storm watch for at least portions of the region by sometime on Sunday for Monday night and Tuesday.
Beau Dodson
Meteorological Specialist for the Paducah/McCracken County Emergency Management Team
Some photos from today…
Finishing up the foundation walls - cold and windy day.
The "HOLE"
Barry Dummitt (I hope I spelled that correctly) is putting the tower up. He is with World Tower Company. He
is currently putting up a lot of 250′ towers across Central IL and Northern IL - for all of these new wind turbines
that you see going up and down the interstate. They use the 250′ towers for wind instruments.
First concrete truck arrives. It took three trucks.
More concrete
Slowly filling the hole with concrete
Stilllllll coming…
Placing the cage inside the concrete - this helps strengthen the base
Placing the cage
More concrete arrives - slowly filling the hole and the cage
AND WE HAVE IT FILLED!!!!
That is the base - three prongs - antenna tower will be placed on that base - next week perhaps.
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Well, it was warm this morning but turned colder in the afternoon. A winter storm is approaching the region. Sleet and freezing rain will likely develop on Monday night and continue into Tuesday. Heavy icing is possible. Still too early to know exact amounts or where the rain/snow line will set up shop. Stay tuned on this one - could get pretty bad.
They continued to work on forming up the foundation today. Looks like they might pour concrete tomorrow (Saturday). We are also working on the concrete work for the tower tomorrow morning. Bright and early! Looks like the tower can actually be placed on the stand next week (weather permitting).
I cut brush today and used the chain saw to cut down a small tree or two (in the way of Southern Illinois Electric). They are removing poles from the field. Lot of brush and small shrub/trees.
Heads up everyone. A major ice storm is likely to hit the region next week. Here is this mornings email update:
January 23, 2009
Quick update tonight -
Although it is VERY early to make a call - the latest guidance is showing a major ice storm for most of our counties Monday-Wednesday of next week. Current model data shows over 1" of freezing rain for Paducah. IF - that were to occur then major power outages would likely occur. This would be a bigger ice storm than last February’s. At least for West Kentucky.
IF - that is a very big IF - the model data is correct then emergency management should at least for aware of the potential for a significant ice storm next week.
This storm is 3-4 days out, however, the trend is towards a bigger event. We are all aware that winter storms are notoriously difficult to forecast in this region. A slight change in the storms path will impact that forecast SIGNIFICANTLY.
It will probably be Sunday until confidence is high on how this forecast will pan out.
I would encourage (since it is Friday now) that everyone keep abreast of the forecast of the weekend. Preparations may be necessary for a significant ice storm across the region.
Again, still too far out to know for sure. Model data tonight, however, is indicating the threat for a major ice storm next week.
Stay tuned…
Beau Dodson
Lot of cirrus in the sky today. Made for some cool photos.
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Today they dug the hole for the big tower. The hole had to be seven feet deep! That is a pretty big hole. I believe they are going to pour the concrete for the tower on Saturday. Not sure when they will actually put the tower up. The concrete needs to dry. That might take a week or so? Not 100% sure on that!
They continued to work on the foundation today. Looks like everything is coming along nicely.
Satellite was hooked up - so at least I have The Weather Channel and news to watch!
Everyone should pay attention to the forecast. A major winter storm could hit the region next week.
This mornings email that I sent out to state and local agencies:
January 22, 2009
Threat:
Wintry precipitation - medium confidence
Time Period:
Monday night into Wednesday
An extended period of precipitation is possible starting Monday night and continuing on and off through Wednesday. Not all of the precipitation will be frozen, however,
The main threat for winter precipitation will come on Monday night into Wednesday morning. A mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible across the four state area. At this time the rain/snow line appears to cross portions of Tennessee and Kentucky. If this is indeed the case then it could be a situation where Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois receive more frozen precipitation and portions of Kentucky and Tennessee will be more rain. This storm is still four days way - so it is way to early to make a call on where the 32 degree line will be located.
At this time it does appear that precipitation amounts will likely be greater than 0.25". Some of the latest data actually shows melted totals greater than 1/2" (even 1" in Tennessee). That is melted precipitation (1" of melted equals 10 inches of snow - normally - 1/2" of ice is considered a major ice storm). If this precipitation is all frozen then that would be a significant winter storm for our area.
Latest guidance shows temperatures falling on Wednesday. This is in front of another storm system that will develop later next week. At this time that appears to be rain. A bit early to be making that call, though.
Beau Dodson
Starting to dig the tower hole
Tower hole digging 
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Starting to dig the hole for the tower.
Tower will go here!
Starting to put down the forms for the concrete - foundation work.
It is coming along. The garage will go here along with the tornado shelter and laundry room.
That would be the first floor of the house - eventually. :) Guest room - library - kitchen - living room - dining
room.
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Well, after a little bit of sleep last night (guess my mind is thinking too much because I had a hard time sleeping) I headed back to the farm this morning. They started pouring concrete around 10 AM in the morning. The temperature was a lot colder last night than forecast. It actually got down to 10-13 degrees! So, that made for a BRRRRRRRR morning!
At least the weather was nice. Not a cloud in the sky today. Beautiful day - just a little cold.
Congratulations goes out to Mariah - she got her drivers license today!!!! I know Dione is thrilled!!!!!!!!!
They actually got most of the foundation poured. Still a lot of work to go - but a very good start. Everything is moving along quickly!!!!
At 3 PM we went to Ballard County to pick up the tower (HDX 555 US Tower - Model) for emergency management. It has been sitting at Herb Hendrickson’s farm since I bought it a few years ago. This tower will go on the west side of my property and will hold the tower cam, digital television antenna, anemometer, and emergency management antennas. This is the 55′ tower.
I wasn’t sure we would be able to get it up on the trailer. Dylan and his friend helped us. Daddy helped along with Joey and Tony. So, with everyone working together we managed to get it up on the trailer and tied down. Tony drove it over to Massac County. We off-loaded it right as the sun was setting.
First truck of the day arrives - bringing chat/rock to lay down. This is to keep the concrete trucks from
sinking. The ground is frozen and is hard as a rock, though. So, not a big deal. Thankfully. That could
change later this week. Temperatures might approach 50 degrees by Friday.
Dumping chat
Laying down the driveway
Concrete truck arrives! First of many.
Concrete is flowing!!!! Foundation going in.
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Concrete trucks came and went all day long. Not sure how many loads - several.
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Placing the flags for the tower. It needs to be seven feet deep - then six feet by six feet. Pretty big hole!
Joey - Dylan and Dylan’s friend - ready to move the tower.
Tony bringing the truck in
It weighs over 800 pounds.
Up on the truck!!!!
Tony trying to lift the tower
Taking the tower to Massac County!
Arriving at the farm. Time to unload the tower.
Sunset arriving!
And there it is. Ready to go into the ground.
One of the big reasons I am moving to the farm. The SUNSET view!!!!!
Sunset behind the big Oak Tree. January 21, 2009!!!!
Tomorrow we do it all over again!
Dione’s emails from today on Mariah and the drivers license experience
Ok…so in a little under 2 hours my life as I know it will have changed. At this point I am still not sure if it is for the good or bad…I will let you know this time next year. I can’t believe how nervous I am, my palms are sweaty and my stomach feels a little nauseous…(is that how you spell that?)
Anyway, as our president (should that be a capital p?) said yesterday this is a new dawn….I am about to take my 16 year old daughter for her drivers test.
Only two things can happen today at 2:00 pm…neither of which are good. Either we will go there and she will pass her test and I will be in a worry mode for now until she turns 30 or she won’t get her license in which case I really worry for the police officer who doesn’t pass her. Either way today is not a good day. I shall return to work this afternoon and let you know the outcome but I would suggest either way you stay off the roads and /or don’t call Mariah until she takes her anger management pills.
I will try to post as to when she is driving and in what direction she is heading as often as I can but as you know…sometimes teenagers can take wrong turns…in that case…I am warning you know…that I take no responsibility as to what she hits and on what sidewalk she hit it.
God help us all.
Dione Stanford
Then later in the day
Ok…after Mariah and I left school we went by her dad’s house to get her contacts to which she forgot this morning.
She decided to try her hand at parallel parking since we had plenty of time before the test. So she pulls up next to the car in front of her dad’s house and trys her luck…after going forward and backing up a couple of times I feel that she has done the best she could and just let it be and go inside to get her contacts in so that we can go.
In the house she is having trouble getting one eyes contact in so I help her by putting in her eye which is now red, tearing and burning from two many fingers being put in it and half a bottle of liquid stuff that you are suppose to put on the contact. At one point she just tipped her head to the side and put the liquid right into her eye ((Don’t ask))…so anyway
We got it in and I walk outside to get into the car and I see the fruits of her labor of parallel parking. The car is setting on 3 tires and the 4th of which is on top of the curb. As I get into the car I’m thinking is this really a good thing…kids getting their license at 16. Shouldn’t maybe someone step up and change the laws.
Anyway, as we pull up into the parking lot the woman is there waiting on us. Mariah pulls up into the parking spot to try this thing called a driving test. I was trying to gather all my things and my purse so that I could get out of the car and leave Mariah to the test…the woman asks her to put her lights on, her windshield wipers all of which I showed her where they were. Then she asked her to turn on her hazard lights, at that time I panicked and pointed to the little red button on the dash for Mariah, at which time Mariah yelled at me to stop showing her where things are.
Needless to say when I got to the bench with another man waiting for his 16 year old son to get back, I wasn’t feeling to good. About 5 minutes later the man’s son came back with an "F" that would mean he flunked. I was not feeling very confident at this time at all. So Mariah pulls back into the parking lot with a huge smile on her face and I know at this moment that nothing will ever be the same again.
Dione
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Welcome to my journal. I call it a journal because I started this before "blogs" existed. Within this site you will find pages and pages and pages of my journey over the last 10 years. An incredible story of triumph, sadness, happiness, and intense battles. I run several web-sites. Most of them dealing with weather and photography - my passion. You can visit the sites through the links below. If you would like to know more about me then please visit my biography page by clicking Here.
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